RECENT FORM
Real Madrid currently sits at the top of Group D with 12 points. A draw would be enough to win the group, and avoid a potentially disastrous first round matchup in knockout stage.
What is the importance of winning your group? You can avoid Manchester City and Liverpool, Bayern Munich, Ajax, Ajax, Ajax and most importantly Chelsea in the first round if you win your group. It will be interesting to see whether Real Madrid goes for all three points or just the draw to secure the group.
Inter Milan has bounced back from a poor start in Champions League play, and all that is needed to win the group is Real Madrid. Inter has been the most offensively dominant team in Europe this season. Los Blancos could be hurt by a Real Madrid defense that is prone to a lot more negative regression.
Can Real Madrid win?
Real Madrid needs only a draw to win this group. There are some game theories to be aware of. Los Blancos, however, have demonstrated under Carlo Ancelotti that their defensive style is not conducive to seeing the game through.
As an example, take the Athletic Bilbao match on Wednesday. They allowed just two xG and 38 touches within their own penalty box. Inter is the team that can destroy Real Madrid’s defense. Real Madrid is currently 13th in NPxG in La Liga.
Real Madrid will suffer a lot of offensive regression because KarimBenzema Jr. and Vinicius Jr. have finished at ridiculous rates. According to fbref.com, Los Blancos scored 37 goals in La Liga against 27.9 expected goals. Karim Benzema will miss this match due to a hamstring injury he suffered this weekend.
Will Inter’s attacking prowess continue?
Inter has been a colossal offensive force in Serie A this year, putting up 2.30 xG each contest. They lead Italy in scoring opportunities, shots per 90 minutes, and crosses into the penalty box. Real Madrid will have a difficult time stopping them.
Inter lost Romelu Lukaku and Antonio Conte in the offseason but they made a great hiring by bringing in Simone Inzaghi, who was a 3-5-2 player at Lazio. Inter also brought in Edin Dzeko as a replacement for Lukaku. They have a +18.52xGD in just over 1,200 minutes of playing out this season.
They’re actually allowing 0.99 xG for 90 minutes when they play out of it this year. Real Madrid will have trouble creating opportunities without Benzema.
ANALYSIS
Inter was also not worthy to lose their last meeting with these two sides. With a 2.-1.1 advantage, they won the xG in stats. The difference was made by Rodrygo’s goal in the 89th minute. Given the offensive strengths of Inter and Real Madrid’s defensive strengths, this time it should be different.
Real Madrid is projected at -110. However, Real Madrid needs only a draw. Given Inter’s prolific offense, it will be difficult for them to play in any other structure. Real Madrid could be in trouble Tuesday.
TIPS & Predictions
Given the game theory that Real Madrid will only need a draw, and their poor defense, Inter is my favorite bet at +0.5 at -140 odds. I’m going to make Inter my number one pick.
TIPS: Inter +0.5 (-140). I would choose to bet on 1xbet (Get a 100%～200% bonus on your first deposit with promo code:boom100), which offers better odds compared to the market.
