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Top Serie A Matchday 38 Picks – One Day to Crown a Champion

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Top Serie A Matchday 38 Picks: One Day to Crown a Champion
Rafael Leão during the Serie A match between Milan v Atalanta. Photo by Loris Roselli/NurPhoto via AFP.

In the final matchday of the Serie A season 2021-22, the title will be decided. Talk about drama. Here are our top picks from Serie A’s Matchday38.

Inter Milan and AC Milan will play at 12 p.m. on Sunday May 22. ET. Milan is two points ahead of Sassuolo with a better head-to–head record. However, they have to face a much more difficult match when they travel to face them. They beat them 3-1 in their home game on Nov. 28. Inter hosts Sampdoria who was recently saved from relegation Sampdoria. However, Inter will have to manage business and hope Milan slips down.

Following the relegation battle Salernitana and Cagliari will occupy 18th place. They will be the final team to be sent down to Serie A. Genoa were officially relegated after losing 3-0 against Napoli on Matchday 37. This ended a 15-year streak in the top flight for Italy’s oldest professional team.

These are my top Serie A Matchday 38 predictions and betting picks (odds via BetMGM, 1xbet, and 1xbet; pick confidence is based upon a 1-to-5 star scale).

Top Serie A Matchday 38 Picks

Serie A Matchday 38 Predictions

Milan to win and Leao to score (+179)

After a two-game draw in April, Milan has shown the mental fortitude necessary to win the Scudetto. They have now collected 15 out of a possible 15, and will be able to secure their first Serie A title since 2011, if they beat Sassuolo Sunday. This streak by

MILAN is largely due to their defense. They have only conceded two goals on 3.38 expected goal against (xGA), which is easily the best defensive record in Serie A. They are only seventh in this category with 10 goals on 10.48 anticipated goals (xG), but their ability grind out wins and limit goals against is how they have won titles in Italy.

SASSUOLO have the sixth highest number of goals (64) in Serie A this year, but their poor defensive record and inability to collect all points against smaller clubs has resulted in them finishing in the middle of the table. Their record in the last five games is also terrible, with only four of the possible 15 points. Perhaps more shocking is their inability to score goals. Their 6.95 xG in the last five games puts them 14th in Serie A.

We’ll add Leao anytime to give this a boost. As the pressure mounts, Leao has scored in Milan’s two previous games and is their best forward for the entire season.

Milan’s red-and-black side will be celebrating a league championship when it is over.

Udinese +0.5 (+115)

There are always tricky handicapping games this time of the year. Motivation is an important factor, but it shouldn’t be the only reason you choose a side. This is what I think we have in the match between Salernitana & Udinese.

Both teams have been on a pretty equal footing since the beginning of April. Udinese and Salernitana have 13.77 and 14.36 expected points (xPTS), and I Granata has four wins. They are tied for third in Serie A. The biggest difference is in goal scoring. Udinese ranks second in xG at 20.17, while Salernitana is eighth at 12.94. Udinese lost to Salernitana at Stadio Friuli, April 20. Simone Verdi scored the winning goal in the 93rd minute. Udinese have not lost on this stretch of road.

Last week, I strongly believed in the run Salernitana are currently on. They are not facing Empoli as they did on Matchday 37. However, they have been facing one of the best teams in Serie A over recent weeks. Salernitana’s -140 — 58.3% implied chance on [(1xbet]] — win is due to the fact that they have to win in order to remain up.

Getting a team equal for a win, draw or forfeit at plus money seems like a good deal on a mispriced match purely due to the motivation factor.

Napoli -1.5 (+145)

Sunday’s game between Napoli and Spezia is an insignificant one in the grand scheme. Spezia is safe from relegation and Napoli remain in third place. The Partenopei might be benefited by the fact that there are no stakes in the game.

In recent weeks, we’ve seen how Napoli can play well without being put under pressure. A convincing 6-1 victory against Sassuolo, and a 3-0 blanking against Genoa were achieved after dropping points against Roma (and Empoli) that saw them drop out of the title race. Despite all their flaws, Napoli still has the third best xG in 2022 and the second best xGA in 2022. They also have third in xPTS. Spezia is 13th in xG, and last at home in this category in 2022 with a 9.26 G. Napoli and Milan are tied for the most away points in 2022. Their 16 away goals place them behind only Lazio, Sassuolo, and Milan for 2022.

Napoli will win comfortably against Spezia, who can take a deep breath of relief after surviving the drop.

Serie A Matchday 38 Quick Picks


These are our picks for Serie:

Serie Matchday 38 picked on 5/18/2022, 6:13 p.m. ET. ET.

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