In my last article(A very simple but very effective sports betting strategy that allows you to easily earn hundreds of dollars) I described a simple betting strategy to make a few hundred dollars, and yes, it works. But the next strategy I’m going to talk about is a little more complicated. This strategy is going to do a lot more, it’s about being a good tipster but it will save you a lot of money and the fact that many professional betting bettors use this strategy shows that it is very effective.
If you are a beginner, you may not be aware of this strategy. If you are a more mature bettor then you may have heard of it. It is about finding high odds and placing bets on those odds.
The odds offered by the bookmaker actually represent the odds of a sporting event. For example, if a bookmaker suggests a football team to win at odds of 2:1, this means that they estimate the odds of that team winning to be 50% (which would actually be a little less). The formula for calculating probability: Probability = 1 / Odds * 100
If the bookmaker has correctly estimated the probability of the event in question, the strategy of using value betting is to place a bet at higher odds than is warranted.
Let us understand this tennis match by way of a specific example.
What do the odds of Thiem 1.08 and Sugita 6.50 mean?
In terms of probability, it means that the bookies estimate Thiem’s chances of winning at 1 / 1.08 * 100 = 92% and Sugita’s chances of winning at 1 / 6.5 * 100 = 15%. You’ll say to me “but if we add the odds of both players winning, we’ll be over 100%, which isn’t true”. The reason is simple: the bookmaker takes a margin.
The problem is what to do with the data, for which the rule to follow is “bet with players whose real probability of winning is greater than the probability given by the bookmaker (through its odds)”.
Specifically, if after analysing the race you estimate that Thiem has a 95% chance of winning the race, then you should bet on him, as the bookmaker’s rating only estimates him at 92% (we have seen a little higher). On the other hand, if after analysis you reckon Thiem has a 90% chance of winning, then you shouldn’t bet on him. By following this principle and strategy in sports betting, you will make money in the long run.
The main difficulty with this sports betting strategy is to successfully assess the chances of a player or team winning better than the bookies. To do this successfully you have to focus on a particular sport in order to master everything about that sport. It usually takes several years of practice to become efficient and to have a better probability than the bookmakers.
How do you know you’ve succeeded in determining good odds?
There is only one way to know if your analysis and the probabilities you have established are good. That way is to keep all your predictions up to date and see what results you get (in terms of ROI). If you have a positive result after 400 bets, then there is a good chance that you have managed to establish better odds than the bookie and therefore you can use the value strategy to win in sports betting.
Use this strategy to make more money in sports betting and become a good tipster
Imagine that you have become a good bettor and are more accurate than the bookies. If this is the case, then you are making money from your predictions. You can now consider becoming a tipster.
The tipster makes predictions and sells them to other bettors. The latter are interested in buying his predictions because in the long run they are the winners. It is a win-win deal between the bettor and the tipster. Tipsters can sell their predictions through a monthly subscription, which usually costs between 20 and 50 euros per month. So, if you have 100 subscribers following your predictions, you can earn 100 * 50 € = 5000 € per month in addition to the money you earn from making your own predictions.
Therefore, the strategy of finding the value of your own bets through your own analysis is the strategy that can bring in the most money in sports betting. However, it is a strategy that requires good skills and time to train and become a winner. It is the most effective but also the most difficult strategy in sports betting.